James Mahmud Rice

Six Ways Population Change Will Affect The Global Economy

Andrew Mason, Ronald Lee, and members of the NTA Network*

Population And Development Review, 48(1), March, 2022, pages 51-73

Abstract

New estimates of economic flows by age combined with population projections show that in the coming decades (1) global GDP growth could be slower by about 1 percentage point per year, declining more sharply than population growth; (2) GDP will shift toward sub-Saharan Africa more than population trends suggest; (3) living standards of working-age adults may be squeezed by high spending on children and seniors; (4) changing population age distribution will raise living standards in many lower-income nations; (5) changing economic life cycles will amplify the economic effects of population aging in many higher income economies; and (6) population aging will likely push public debt, private assets, and perhaps productivity higher. Population change will have profound implications for national, regional, and global economies.

*NTA Network authors: Michael Abrigo, Ruslan Aliyev, Eugenia Amporfu, Tommy Bengtsson, Barthelemy Biao, Luis Rosero Bixby, Arjan Bruil, Marisa Bucheli, Enkhtsetseg Byambaa, Agnieszka Chlon-Dominczak, Pablo Comelatto, Deidra Coy, Hippolyte d'Albis, Mikhail Denissenko, Gretchen Donehower, Sadou Doumbo, Latif Dramani, Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Robert Gal, Christopher Gee, Cecilia González, Tengku Aizan Hamid, Bernhard Hammer, Mauricio Holz, Tanja Istenic, Pamela Jiménez-Fontana, Shen Ke, Bazlul Khondker, Hyun Kyung Kim, Fanny Kluge, Majid Koosheshi, Laishram Ladusingh, Mun Sim Lai, Sang-Hyop Lee, Thanh Long, Silvino Lopes, Adrian Lupusor, Ricardo Córdova Macías, Maliki, Rikiya Matsukura, David McCarthy, Iván Mejia, Marcel Merette, Germano Mwabu, M R Narayana, Isalia Nava, Vanndy Nor, Gilberto Norte, Naohiro Ogawa, Olanrewaju Olaniyan, Javier Olivera, Morne Oosthuizen, Concepció Patxot, James Rice, Fathimath Riyaza, Paulo Saad, Joze Sambt, Aylin Seckin, James Sefton, Verónica Serafini, Latdavanh Songvilay, Guadalupe Souto, Wanchat Suwankitti, Pham Toan, Nimia Torres, Jorge Tovar, An-Chi Tung, Cassio Turra, Piedad Urdinola, Risto Vaittinen, and Marina Zannella.

Read More

Article

Supplemental materials (360 kb)